Development of public policy depends to a large extent on sensible
public discussion to filter out stupid proposals. Climate change is no exception. The problem
is that instead of having sensible discussions a lot of people just accuse one
another of being deniers or alarmists, and use political stunts to advance or
defend stupid policies.
It is easy to get the impression that most people can be
classed as either deniers or alarmists, but surveys suggest to me that such extremists
make up a relatively small proportion of the population of most countries. How
many people get classified as deniers and alarmists is obviously influenced by
the way these concepts are defined.
It makes sense to classify people as “deniers” if they claim
climate change is “not a threat”. A survey by the Pew Research Center conducted
in 2018 found that the percentages saying that climate change is not a threat
vary substantially among the 26 countries included, from 21% in Nigeria to 3%
in France and South Korea. Corresponding numbers were 16% in the U.S., 9% in
Australia and 4% in Sweden.
The Pew survey found that in most countries a majority
viewed climate change as “a major threat”, but it would be an exaggeration to
label all those as alarmists. The people I describe as alarmists tend to say
things like: “It is already too late to avoid the worst effects of climate change”.
An international poll by YouGov, taken in 2019, found that people who say that
vary from 20% of the population in France to 4% in Oman. Corresponding numbers
were 10% in the U.S. and Australia, 8% in Sweden, 11% in Britain, and 6% in
China.
False alarm
I was prompted to attempt to get a handle on the percentages
of deniers and alarmists by my reading Bjorn Lomborg’s latest book,
FalseAlarm: How climate change panic costs us trillions, hurts the poor, and fails
to fix the planet. Lomborg sees climate change alarmism as a greater
problem than denial. He suggests that the arguments of the deniers have been “thoroughly
debunked” and approves of media refusing to give space to deniers. His main
gripe is that media are “failing to hold climate alarmists to account for their
exaggerated claims”.
However, it seems to me that different media outlets have
different biases. Some pander to the prejudices of the noisy alarmists among
their readers, while others pander to the noisy deniers. Unfortunately, the
mass media no longer does much to promote sensible discussion of issues that
have become politicized.
Lomborg’s book seems to me to advance a coherent viewpoint
that could provide a basis for sensible discussion among people who are not
wedded to extreme positions. His main points are as follows:
- Climate change is real. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere
affects global temperature.
- Global warming will have a negative impact on human
well-being. Estimates of the likely damage from global warming by 2100 amount
to a modest percentage of GDP (about 4%) if allowance is made for adaptation,
fertilization (positive impacts of CO2 on crop yields and forest production) and
the expanding bullseye effect (the tendency for more people to live in flood
prone and fire prone areas).
- If all nations met their promises under the Paris Agreement,
that would have only a small impact on global warming.
- With known technology and using the most efficient policy
instrument to achieve Paris Agreement targets, the cost involved would be much
higher (perhaps 3 times higher) than the expected benefits.
- There is potential for research and development to reduce
the cost of green energy alternatives to use of fossil fuels. However, governments
are not meeting the commitments they have made to expand relevant R&D
activities.
- Carbon taxes and green energy innovation will not obviate
the need for adaptation to a warmer climate over coming decades. Adaptation is
a less costly option than attempting to reduce CO2 emissions to zero over the
next few decades.
- Geo-engineering is worth researching as a backup plan to be
used as required, e.g. if the West Antarctic ice sheet starts to melt
precipitately.
- People in low-income countries will be better able to cope
with the adverse impacts of climate change if they become wealthier. Holland and
Bangladesh both have substantial areas of land below sea level, but Holland can
afford infrastructure that enables it to cope better.
My overall impression is that Lomborg has made a serious
effort to focus discussion on things that are worth discussing. I have some reservations
about his views, which I will mention below, but my initial focus is whether
the book is generating useful discussion. I have found a couple of reviews by
people who could be expected to challenge the argument that Lomborg advances.
Reviews
The first review is by Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel prize
winning economist. Stiglitz’s review was published in the New York Times. Rather
than addressing the cost of current policies, Stiglitz appeals to an authority which
he seems to view as infallible - an international panel chaired by himself and
Lord Nicholas Stern – which apparently “concluded that those goals could be
achieved at moderate cost”. I have not been able to find that conclusion in the report of his High-Level Commission, but I can’t claim to have read the document
thoroughly. My brief reading left me with the impression that the costs will
only be moderate if there is rapid progress in development of green technology.
Stiglitz does not acknowledge that Lomborg advocates increased R&D for to
promote more rapid development of green technology.
Stiglitz concludes by asserting:
“Lomborg’s work would be downright dangerous if it were to
succeed in persuading anyone that there was merit in its arguments”.
Rather than engaging in sensible discussion, Stiglitz seems
to me to be intent on using polemics to defend alarmism.
Surprisingly, there has been more sensible review in “The
Guardian”. That review is by Bob Ward, who is associated with the Grantham
Research Institute on Climate Change at the LSE. Ward combines his review of
Lomborg’s book with a review of Michael Shellenberger’s book, Apocalypse
Never. Ward’s remarks are somewhat offensive - he labels the authors as
“lukewarmers”, promoting a “form of climate change denial”. Nevertheless, he
manages to acknowledge that they make legitimate criticisms of alarmism by
environmentalists. He agrees that the world should be investing more in helping
poor people become more resilient to climate change. He also expresses sympathy
for the view that nuclear power has a role to play in creating a zero-carbon
energy system.
My reservations
The main problem I see with Lomborg’s argument relates to
the use of GDP as a welfare measure. As well as the usual problems in the use
of GDP in this way, there is the additional problem that many of the costs of
adaptation are counted as making a positive contribution to GDP. For example,
infrastructure investment to build walls to hold back rising sea levels is
counted as part of GDP. As such adaptation investment comes to represent an
increasing share of total investment, it will crowd out other investments that have
potential to enhance human well-being.
This line of reasoning reinforces the importance of R&D
that has potential to reduce the cost of alternative energy and hence to reduce
the cost of mitigation. If it becomes less costly to pursue greater mitigation over
the next few decades, that can obviously reduce the combined total of damage and
adaptation costs over the longer term.
My other reservation relates to something that is not
central to Lomborg’s argument, as outlined above, but is difficult to let pass.
It is his endorsement of the proposition that “if everyone does a little, we’ll
achieve only a little”. That seems to me to promote unwarranted pessimism about
the likelihood of success of the polycentric approach promoted by Elinor Ostrom.
In a paper presented to the World Bank in 2009, Ostrom
suggested that rather than wait for national governments to take concerted
action, the best way forward was multi-layered action by individuals and firms,
as well as by local, state, and national governments. The polycentric approach is
messy, but there are hopeful signs emerging that it is developing sufficient
momentum to facilitate effective action. The individual actions of environmentally
conscious individuals may not add up to much by themselves, but they seem to be
inducing an increasing number of firms to modify their behaviour. Some firms are
presenting an environmentally friendly image without doing much to back it up, but
others seem to be actively planning for a carbon-free future. The announcement
last year by the world's largest asset management firm, BlackRock, that it will
put climate change at the centre of its investment strategy, seems to me to
signify a substantial change in the way the game is being played. If enough
firms adopt R&D, innovation and investment strategies based on expectations
of a carbon-free future, those expectations will tend to become self-fulfilling.
Bottom line
Lomborg’s book is not likely to persuade many climate change
alarmists (or deniers) to modify their views, but it provides a basis for the
rest of us to have sensible discussions about policy options.