Sunday, December 6, 2009

Do all well-being indicators tell similar stories about human flourishing?

Human flourishing is about enjoying the things that it is good for humans to have. It is more than economic opportunity; it is more than feeling happy or satisfied with life; it is more than safety and security; it is more than good health and longevity; it is more than educational opportunity; it is more than being free to choose how you live your life; it is more than the opportunity to participate in political processes; it is more than social capital; it is more than the opportunity to enjoy the natural environment. These things may all be relevant to human flourishing but no single aspect incorporates everything that contributes to individual flourishing. Any list of aspects of human flourishing is likely to be incomplete and include items that are more important to some individuals than to others.



Hopefully everyone who reads the above paragraph will consider it to be a statement of the obvious. However, the idea that there is more to life than feeling happy or satisfied actually seems to be quite controversial. Some happiness researchers, including some economists, seem to think that everything that is good for humans to have can be reduced to a single number reflecting feelings of happiness or satisfaction with life.


In an earlier post (What are the characteristics of a good society?) I suggested that nearly everyone would agree that a good society would provide its members with opportunities to flourish – to have more of the things that are good for humans to have. In another post (Is a good society index a good idea?) I foreshadowed that I would attempt to identify the suite of indicators that are most relevant to assessing to what extent particular societies might qualify as good societies. This post goes some way toward that objective. It presents indicators of the performance of various societies in relation to a range of aspects of human flourishing.


In the following table countries have been ranked by per capita income levels. The ratings of countries with performance in the top quartile for each indicator are shown against a green background, those for the second quartile are shown in yellow, the third quartile in orange and the fourth quartile in red.


The table shows that many well-being indicators tell a similar story about human flourishing. It also shows, however, that both per capita GDP and subjective indicators of the quality of life have limitations as well-being indicators. This is particularly evident in regard to societies such as United Arab Emirates, Singapore and Kuwait. (Many of the indicators used in the table are sub-indexes of the Legatum Prosperity Index. Indicators are defined and information sources are presented below the table.)










Notes:
Income index: Real GDP per capita (rgdpl) for 2007 from the Penn World Table, expressed as a fraction of per capita GDP in the United Arab Emirates, the country with highest per capita GDP. Source: Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.3, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, August 2009.
Quality of life index: Gallup World Poll data on “life today” (latest available) country averages, expressed as a fraction of the rating for Denmark, the country with the highest rating.
Safety and Security: A sub-index of the Legatum prosperity index. High ratings reflect the existence of a safe environment and peaceful society.
Health: A sub-index of the Legatum prosperity index measuring how well citizens are capable of living long and healthy lives.
Education: A sub-index of the Legatum prosperity index reflecting mainly the years of schooling that a nation’s citizens complete.
Freedom: A sub-index of the Legatum prosperity index which measures how well citizens are able to freely choose the course of their lives and their perceptions of societal tolerance.
Democratic Institutions: A sub-index of the Legatum prosperity index which reflects civil liberties, political rights, the independence of the judiciary etc.
Social capital: A sub-index of the Legatum prosperity index which reflects how well people are engaged in social networks and relationships that are trustworthy and supportive.
Environmental satisfaction: Gallup World Poll data on the satisfaction of citizens with efforts to preserve the environment in their country, presented in index form such that the highest rating country has a rating of 1.0 and the lowest rating country has a rating of zero.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Where are people most satisfied with efforts to preserve the environment?

This question arose as I was thinking about the relationship between the determinants of happiness (i.e. survey measures of subjective well-being or SWB) and human flourishing at a national level.

Recent research has been able to explain around 90% of inter-country differences in average SWB in terms of average income levels, enough money for food, healthy life expectancy, friends to count on, perceptions of freedom, corruption, charitable donations and church attendance. (See: John Helliwell et al, NBER Working Paper 14720.) It is not surprising that these factors affect well-being but it is hard to accept that items on this short list could explain as much as 90% of variation among countries in average well-being. Other factors that might also be thought likely to affect well-being include education, environmental quality, democratic institutions, and participation in cultural and sporting activities.


In the case of education, some studies have shown that while higher levels of education tend to be associated with higher levels of SWB, the effects of education tend to drop out when other factors such as health status and income are included in models. Education improves health and income-earning potential and thus indirectly contributes to SWB. Furthermore, the importance of education to individual well-being does not depend solely on its impact on satisfaction with life or happiness. Education could arguably still be good for people even if it did not make them feel good.


It is possible that similar considerations may apply with regard to environmental quality. For example, water and air pollution are detrimental to health and longevity. Furthermore, arguments advanced in favour of preserving the natural environment do not rest solely on the contribution it makes to the emotional well-being of humans.


However, there does not seem to have been as much research done on the contribution of environmental quality to SWB. This may be because of the difficulty of interpreting available survey data relating to perceptions of the natural environment.


The World Values Surveys include questions concerning the priorities that people give to environmental protection. These surveys show that the proportion of the population who consider that higher priority should be given to environmental protection than to economic growth tends to be somewhat higher in high-income countries with relatively high average SWB. These results might reflect what Ronald Inglehart has described as a shift toward postmaterialist values in advanced industrial societies rather than dissatisfaction with efforts to preserve the environment.


The Gallup World Poll asks respondents specifically whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with efforts to preserve the environment in their country. Some characteristics of countries in which high and low proportions of the population are satisfied with efforts to preserve the environment can be compared in the chart below. The other variables shown in the chart are: per capita GDP expressed as a percentage of that in the country with highest per capita GDP (United Arab Emirates); average quality of life (data from the Gallup World Poll expressed in percentage terms); government effectiveness -perceptions of the quality of public services; and regulatory quality - permitting and promoting private sector development. (The latter two indexes are sub-indexes of the World Bank’s suite of governance indicators, converted to percentage terms such that the country with lowest rating has a score of 0% and the country with the highest rating has a score of 100%.)





The chart shows that satisfaction with efforts to preserve the environment tends to be somewhat greater in countries with higher average incomes. The factor that stands out most, however, as a characteristic of countries in which there is greatest satisfaction with efforts to preserve the environment is government effectiveness.

Countries which rate highly in terms of both satisfaction with environmental efforts and government effectiveness include Singapore, Austria, Switzerland and New Zealand. At the other end of the scale, countries which combine low ratings in terms of both of these factors include Mongolia, Ukraine and Pakistan.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

What institutions explain the peacefulness of societies?

I don’t think many people would dispute the idea that the observance of common rules plays an important role in making it possible for individuals to live together peacefully in society. Even if I were to quote something written by Friedrich Hayek that emphasizes the importance of that idea, I doubt whether that would provoke many people to dispute it. (For some suitable quotes from Hayek, see: Are the institutions of the “good society” the same as those of the “great society”? )

 
However, in this instance accepting the logic of a proposition is only one step along the road to understanding its practical significance. It might be useful to know to what extent the peacefulness of societies can be attributed to various factors associated with observance of common rules – factors such as political stability, the quality of legal institutions, civil liberties, and strong social networks and relationships. I report below an attempt to assess the relative importance of these factors using regression analysis.


The measure of the peacefulness of societies used in the analysis is the Legatum Institute’s safety and security sub-index (LSS), which is a component of its Prosperity Index. Indicators covered in the LSS include standard measures of violence such as homicides and assault, refugees and displace persons, flight by professionals (brain drain), civil war and ethnic violence, survey information relating to incidence of theft and perceptions of whether people feel safe walking alone at night. (I compared the LSS and the Global Peace Index here.)


The measure of political stability is the World Bank’s political stability and absence of violence index which captures perceptions of the likelihood of governments being overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means.


The measure of the quality of legal institutions is the World Bank’s rule of law index. This index captures perceptions about contract enforcement, property rights, the police and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence. The appropriateness of this index for current purposes is discussed here.


The measure of civil liberties is the Freedom House civil liberties index. This index covers freedom of expression and belief, associational and organizational rights, rule of law and personal autonomy.


The measure of social networks and relationships is the Legatum Institute’s social capital sub-index (LSC), which is a component of its Prosperity Index. The coverage of the LSC includes perceptions relating to reliability of others, importance of friends, trustworthiness of others and membership of various types of community organizations.


To enable the estimated contribution of the explanatory variables to be compared more readily all indexes have been converted to the same form as the Legatum indexes i.e. with highest value equal to one and the lowest value equal to zero. Estimated coefficients (with standard errors in brackets) are as follows:


• Intercept:                              0.06 (0.03)
• Political stability:                 0.46 (0.06)
• Quality of legal institutions: 0.42 (0.06)
• Civil liberties:                     -0.02 (0.05)
• Social capital:                     -0.01 (0.04)          Adj. R squared = 0.82


The results confirm that political stability and quality of legal institutions play an important role in explaining the peacefulness of societies. They suggest that civil liberties and social capital do not play a significant independent role in this context, but it is possible that these factors may contribute positively to political stability and the quality of legal institutions.


A chart showing how well political stability and quality of legal institutions predict the peacefulness of societies is shown below.



It is apparent from the chart that actual peacefulness is never much greater than predicted peacefulness. This means that political instability and poor quality legal institutions virtually guarantee that a society will not be peaceful.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Does the World Bank's rule of law index measure the quality of legal institutions?

The authors of ‘Governance Matters’, Daniel Kauffman, Aart Kraay and Massimo Mastruzzi, tell us that the World Bank’s rule of law index captures “perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence” (Working Paper 4978, p 6).



On the basis of that description the index seems highly relevant to assessment of whether societies have institutions that enable their members to live in peace with one another. (For background on reasons why I am interested in such indexes see: Is a ‘good society’ index a good idea?)


I think it would be more appropriate to describe this index as a legal institutions index than as a rule of law (RoL) index. The rule of law is the ancient principle that no-one, not even the king, is above the law. It possible for a jurisdiction to have a relatively high score on the World Bank’s RoL index even though its legal foundations for rule of law may be somewhat tenuous e.g. Hong Kong. (Someone might be interested in a previous post on the question: Is rule of law an esoteric concept?)


As with the five other indexes in the World Bank’s suite of governance indicators the RoL index is based on perceptions based data reflecting the views of a diverse range of people, including tens of thousands of household and firm survey respondents and thousands of experts working for the private sector, NGOs, and public sector agencies. The aggregation method gives greater weight to indicators that are correlated with each other.


The RoL index seems to cover similar ground to the Legal structure and property rights sub-index (LSPR) of the Fraser Institute’s economic freedom index. Indicators incorporated in the LSPR cover: judicial independence, impartial courts, protection of property rights, military interference in legal and political processes, integrity of the legal system, contract enforcement and regulatory restrictions on sale of property.


The chart below shows how closely the World Bank’s RoL index and the Fraser Institute’s LSPR index correspond to each other. The blue diamonds represent actual indexes and the pink diamonds represent the predicted value of the LSPR index using linear regression.




In later posts relating to good society indicators I will use the World Bank’s RoL index as an index reflecting the quality of legal institutions.