On “Personal Reflections” last week Jim Belshaw mentioned a
conversation with one of his daughters who said she and most of her generation
had given up on the idea of home ownership because it was no longer an achievable
dream. I would not be surprised if many young Australians hold such views these
days.
Jim mentioned his conversation in the lead-in to his discussion
of the results of some polling by Essential Research, which asked
respondents whether they think that
over the next 40 years various groups of people will be better off or worse off
than they are today. The results are surprisingly negative. Apparently, only
14% think that retirees will be better off. The corresponding numbers for other
groups are: 15% for the middle aged; 14% for families with school aged
children; 18% for young adults and 24% for children.
I suspect that respondents may have been primed to be
somewhat pessimistic in their responses by preceding questions which Essential
asked in the survey. Those questions were about awareness of the
Intergenerational Report, consequences of the changing population age structure
and climate change.
The results of a poll conducted by Essential after last
year’s budget are similarly pessimistic. The poll suggests that 21% of
Australians think that the standard of living for the next generation will be
better than today, 27% think it will be much the same and 48% think it will be
worse (4% don’t know).
An Ipsos Mori survey, reported in The Guardian in April last
year, asked a range of questions and seems to have obtained somewhat more
optimistic responses. When all respondents were asked do “you feel that your generation will have had
a better or worse life than your parents' generation”, 40% said better.
Responses to that question by people under 30 were less optimistic: 30% said
better. When all respondents were asked “do you feel that today's youth will
have had a better or worse life than their parents' generation”, 30% said
better. Again, responses by people under 30 were more pessimistic: only 22% considered
that today’s youth would have a better life than their parents.
The Ipsos Mori (I.M.)
survey suggests that Australians are more optimistic than people in most
high income countries, although they are much less optimistic than people in
China and some other countries experiencing rapid economic growth. A similar
picture emerges from surveys by Pew Global which asked: “When children today in
(survey country) grow up, do you think they will be better off or worse off
financially than their parents?”. The Pew data is available for a larger number
of countries and for both 2013 and 2014. Unfortunately data for Australia (and
some other countries) was only collected for 2013.
The results of the I.M. and Pew surveys can be compared from
data shown in the graph below. In constructing the indexes shown in the graph I
assigned a value of 1 to “better”, -1 to “worse” and 0 to “same” and “don’t
know” (and averaged the I.M. data when two years data was available).
In order to put some perspective on this data it would be
desirable to compare it with earlier surveys. I have found some information on an
international survey undertaken by the Angus Reid Group and reported in The Economist in August 1998. The 16,000 adults included in the survey were
asked about future prospects for themselves and their children, and the results
were used to rank the 29 countries covered according to the optimism of their
citizens. Australia was ranked about the
middle (14th). Respondents in the United
States and Britain were more optimistic (ranked 4th and 9th respectively) while
those in France and Japan were less optimistic (ranked 28th and 29th
respectively).
That information is from a review
I wrote of a book entitled Measuring
Progress, edited by Richard Eckersley. Unfortunately, I have not been able
to find the survey report or data table, but the article in The Economist indicates
that only a quarter of Japanese expected their children to be better off than
they were. That figure lies between the recent I.M. and Pew estimates.
An indication of the way optimism about the next generation changes
over time with changes in economic conditions is provided in a review of U.S.data by Journalist’s Resource. Pessimism about the standard of living of future
generations fell during the 1990s and has since risen again to levels
comparable to those in the early 1990s.
There is not a great deal of comfort in knowing that
Australians are not as pessimistic about the prospects for future generations
as are people in most other high income countries. The situation could easily
get worse with a deterioration in economic prospects in Australia.
It is quite possible that people are mistaken in their
pessimism about prospects for future generations, but perceptions can have an
important influence on well-being and can also influence attitudes and behaviour.
We should know more about why people are pessimistic and whether their
perceptions are well founded. Recent reports by the Grattan Institute and the
Foundation for Young Australians are relevant to this question and should probably
be discussed on this blog in the near future.
Postscript 1:
Postscript 1:
I have just found my copy of the report of the 1998 Angus
Reid Poll referred to above. It was filed away in a place where it was not
difficult to find. I am amazed that on this occasion my filing system worked
better than Google.
The survey was conducted in May/June 1998. The relevant question was: “all things considered, do you think your children
will be better off or worse off than you?”. Apparently 57% of Australians
thought that prospects for the next generation would improve, 22% thought they
would get worse and 21% thought they would stay the same or were unsure. The corresponding numbers for the U.S. were 78%, 14% and 9%. At the optimistic end of the scale, corresponding
numbers for China were 85%, 4% and 11%. Towards the pessimistic end,
the corresponding numbers for France were 33%, 52% and 15%; and for Japan, 24%,
59% and 17%.
Postscript 2:
I have just come across some LSAY (Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth) data which suggests that young people in Australia are optimistic, despite their dissatisfaction with "the state of the economy' and "the way the country is run". In 2013 when their average age was 25.7, 90.1% of the Y03 cohort were happy with their career prospects, 96.3% were happy with their future, 59.9% were happy with the state of the economy and 53.6% were happy with the way the country is run. This group had remained consistently optimistic over the period from 2004 to 2013.
Postscript 3:
Postscript 2:
I have just come across some LSAY (Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth) data which suggests that young people in Australia are optimistic, despite their dissatisfaction with "the state of the economy' and "the way the country is run". In 2013 when their average age was 25.7, 90.1% of the Y03 cohort were happy with their career prospects, 96.3% were happy with their future, 59.9% were happy with the state of the economy and 53.6% were happy with the way the country is run. This group had remained consistently optimistic over the period from 2004 to 2013.
Postscript 3:
My attention has also been drawn to the annual survey of Australian youth conducted by Mission Australia. This captures views of young
people on a range of issues, including their aspirations and views on how
likely their aspirations are to be achieved. In 2014, there were 13,600 survey
respondents aged 15-19 years. Respondents volunteer to take part in the survey
in response to an invitation and an electronic link provided via schools.
Aspirations which respondents viewed as highly important (extremely
important or very important) included: career success (87.4%); financially
independence (86.1%) and home ownership (72.6%). Corresponding percentages
viewing aspirations as highly likely to be achievable (extremely likely or very
likely) were as follows: career success (55.9%); financial independence (65.5%)
and home ownership (71.0%). I am not sure what counts as career success, but those numbers suggest to me that young Australians tend to be pessimistic about their
chances of achieving financial independence and optimistic about their chances
of home ownership.
Respondents were also asked how positive they felt about the
future. In 2014, 63.8% of respondents felt positive or very positive about the
future. The corresponding percentages for 2013 and 2012 were 67.5% and 70.6%.
2 comments:
Nice post, Winton. Will bring link up on my blog with a response.
Thanks Jim, I look forward to the discussion.
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